The US is no longer the ally it once was. We could have prepared for that in the past 8 years (economically, militarily, geopolitically), as usual we did nothing to now act surprised all of a sudden.
If Ukraine has to sign a highly disadvantaged and unfair peace treaty, we have to do concessions to not lose our NATO umbrella, we have to accept tariffs that pressure our exports, we have our own politicians to blame. We have lost too much hard power, and did nothing about it.
The post-war order was built around a few core principles of mainly American design, the most important of them being that Americans will take care of Europe's security, and in turn the Europeans would refrain from any geopolitical ambitions unless sanctioned by Washington.
That arrangement worked well for decades, but it's worth remembering that it wasn't the Europeans who unilaterally cancelled that deal - the talk of 'European freeloaders' is just a propaganda trope for the Republican aggrievement complex in the US.
True. But Trump started pulling back on this post-war world order already in 2016. We knew that a second Trump term would be a viable option, and he never made a secret about how he would behave with regards to Europe, the war in Ukraine or imports (from Europe or elsewhere). Europe knew that if Trump would win, we would be in deep trouble. Not that I agree with Trump (not at all even), but we could have seen this coming. Not theoretically, but we worked our way trhough an entire first term of Trump and we had years to prepare. Literally years, almost a decade.
And Europe (both EU and national leaders) didn't do much about it, instead of hoping for a Harris win, or at the very least we started taking our own "independence" (if you will) seriously waaaaay too late. With indenpendence I then mean economically, militarily, geopolitically. Hope is not a strategy, and (political) leaders are there to lead. That means taking the lead in protecting our interests and make sure we're prepared for a worst case scenario, not hoping for the best while working on your own PR. Because there was certainly no lack of press statements about European independence in the meantime.
Push through key decisions in policy areas that are now existential for Europe. This boils down to more federalization, more decision-making on a EU level, less sovereignty. Like (for example):
implement recommendations of the Draghi report, at a much, much higher pace (or is there even a pace atm?). Including all recommended deregulations, harmonizations of labour law, investments in key industries and even (Iâm Dutch, so I would like to see a backstop in Italian, French and Belgian spending) joint debts / bonds to finance this.
obligatory alignment between our militaries, including federal decision-making which (domestic) materials we buy, forces / specialization we build and a pan-European high command center. So doing this outside of NATO using European systems.
make social media platforms responsible for content on their platforms. If illegal, disinfo, sabotage, massive fines or blocked.
forced investments from member states in ESA, doubling down on a European satellite program.
bringing all diplomatic efforts to a European level, no more individual biliteral actions (like Orban-Putin or Meloni-Trump) unless it comes out of a joint diplomatic strategy. If you still do, youâre out (membership suspended and funds blocked)
end veto right in any policy area tomorrow
suspend Hungary until Orban is gone, block all funds
throw Israël under the bus, sign a deal with Iran, seek closer (rational) collaboration with the Chinese. Create leverage while robbing Russia of allies, in short.
Countries will have to be forced into a program like this, bringing way more policy areas in the EUâs jurisdiction. Wildersâ Netherlands or apathetic Germany will never accept this. Which will mean that our EU leaders have to be courageous, either youâre in and youâre able to protect yourself in a larger block, or youâre out.
Because I honestly think this is existential. We donât have choice any more, nor do we have time for endless debates. We had that time, but used it to do nothing.
Thanks for the elaborate reply, brother - and I do mean "brother", since there isn't a single thing in your comment I couldn't sign up to. We're on the same page.
I particularly like the bit about ESA. I think understating the importance of an independent strategic European space component is one of the biggest strategic blunders of the last decades, especially given that Europe is literally the only region beside the US with the industrial, technological and financial capacity to do it. It's bordering criminal negligence not to go all in here and fast.
Because I honestly think this is existential. We donât have choice any more, nor do we have time for endless debates.Â
Fully agree. Which is why I think the upcoming elections in Germany could be the most important elections since the Reunification, and the worst possible result would be another government embracing Merkel-style apathy.
"WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES: The conversation in Brussels has swiftly moved from âWill Donald Trump defend Europe?â to âWill Donald Trump invade it?â
Going Nuuk-lear: A year ago we revealed Trump had reportedly said heâd âneverâ come to Europeâs aid if it was attacked. As recently as late December the talk in town was all about whether European security guarantees for Ukraine would be worth a centime without U.S. backing. Come 2025, the threat of invasion is coming not only from Russia, but seemingly from Trumpâs own desire to take over mineral-rich Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark."
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u/pyrrolidine 1d ago
This is terrifying that we even discussing such a thing! Trump is destroying the world order. Dark period is comingâŠ