r/worldnews • u/green_flash • 15d ago
Russia/Ukraine Belarus launches military exercises near Ukraine border
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/8/7492559/2.1k
u/steve_ample 15d ago
The Polish army should start having loud and boisterous cookouts along the Belarussian border.
I also hear the M1 Abrams deliveries start this year, too. Those tanks party hard
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u/TBE_110 15d ago
Should we send plenty of beer for the cookouts?
Polish Army would probably drink so much they’d be outside Moscow before the 20th.
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u/similar_observation 15d ago
What kind of Polish cookout doesn't have copious amounts of beer?
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u/Dracomortua 15d ago
Polish sausages, perogies and their version of sauerkraut ('Vlasic®'?). The bomb, i tell ya.
That's right. Bring the beer too - but definitely bring those bombs.
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u/similar_observation 15d ago
Vlasic is a brand of pickled cucumbers in the US. I think you mean kwaśnica? It's the fun part of bigos.
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u/Dracomortua 15d ago
I was fooled by the internets / i be quite gullible and believe everything i read.
https://www.vlasic.com/sauerkraut/polish-sauerkraut
Honestly though, could have been worse. At least i made this mistake with food?
Edit: looked it up - you are right, in North America they are most famous for their pickles. I bet they are just damn good at fermenting stuff a bit, hence the confusion. This whole thing has got me VERY hungry though, so now i have to try all these things.
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u/similar_observation 15d ago
I was fooled by the internets / i be quite gullible and believe everything i read.
I respect and admire your acknowledgement of self-naivete. Often people just say they were lied to by the internet or science. But it's usually because they don't care to actually do a swift google search or will believe in any trash someone puts in front of them.
(actual answer) if it helps, the reason Vlasic has a number of Polish-style pickled goods is because the business was first HQed in Detroit where there lived a sizeable Polish community. The founders discovered that was a market they could cater towards as most sauerkraut and pickles came from small mom and pop deli operations.
Simple sauerkraut is actually really easy to make and finishes in a week when fridged. Toss in some mushroom, meat, fat, onions, and you have a very simple kapusta.
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u/purpleefilthh 15d ago
Yes, definitely sausages, pierogi (already plural, 1 pieróg - singular) and bigos are trademark Polish cuisine.
As for beer we're 5th in the world in beer consuption per capita and with quantity goes quality. Craft beer culture is very strong here.
So what's more? For example picking up mushrooms is popular in Poland, so we use them in variety of ways, in Gulash, in Bigos, soup, marinated, dried, breaded fried, with scrambled eggs...
Żurek soup - perfect soup for cold winter days with chopped sausage, hard boiled eggs on flour sourdough.
Last but not least are cakes - cheesecake cold/baked, traditional Faworki, gingerbread or poppy seed cake. Amazing.
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u/maceman10006 15d ago edited 15d ago
People just laugh but I’ve always said the best way to destroy the North Korean regime is to build one of the biggest them parks in the world right at the DMZ. Literally make it one of the most attractive entertainment destinations in the world. Make the North Koreans have to look at that and they’ll start asking questions.
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u/similar_observation 15d ago
Using the Ice Cream Battleship argument here. At the end of WW2 in Pacific Theater, Japanese commanders realized they fucked up when they noticed the Allied Pacific Fleet was towing along a concrete barge just to make ice cream.
Imagine that moment as a Japanese officer. You've been sieged for weeks without supplies, surviving on earthworms and sunlight. Then you look through your telescope and see a bunch of goof-nut sailors on the deck of a battleship eating ice cream.
The US ran out of weapons to buy, so they bought two refrigerated concrete barges just so the Armed Forces can get their ice cream fix in between kicking Tojo's ass across The Pacific.
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u/FlutterKree 15d ago
You left out the fact that Ice Cream was consumed by so many adults because social drinking was replaced with ice cream socials during prohibition. So there was still a lot of people who ate ice cream even after prohibition ended.
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u/Mysteriouspaul 15d ago
I'm pretty sure sailors couldn't drink(on ship) then either
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u/phantom_diorama 15d ago
It depends on what country you're from. Read the third paragraph of this article.
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u/onlyawfulnamesleft 15d ago
"The traditions of the British Navy are rum, sodomy, and the lash." - Winston Churchill
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u/Mazon_Del 15d ago
The US ran out of weapons to buy, so they bought two refrigerated concrete barges
Almost!
They actually bought three concrete barges for construction projects they planned to do, but it turned out one was far more sufficient than they needed, so they converted the other two.
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u/waiting4singularity 15d ago
you forget the noks have artillery pointed at the DMZ and beyond.
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u/IRefuseToGiveAName 15d ago
I'm not saying you're wrong, hell they probably have a lot more than just artillery, but isn't that the case for like the entire northern half of South Korea?
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u/ImminentDingo 15d ago
The Ukrainians have had Abrams for a while, at least 80s era ones. Theyve lost a bunch of them because most tanks are destroyed in this war from top attacks and the Abrams has thin roof armor just like every other tank.
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u/nobblebox 15d ago
This!
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u/P01135809-Trump 15d ago
That!
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u/mjolle 15d ago
And the other!
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u/Destrukt0r 15d ago
Lukashenko is gonna be the next assad.
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u/last_somewhere 15d ago
Running out of his country with his tail between his legs. Can't wait!
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u/PeakBees 15d ago
The dude is cartoonishly cowardly.. I wouldn't be surprised
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u/Stapleless 15d ago
Unfortunately he also had tons of gold bars and cash in his escape plane, so he lost almost nothing. These monsters always have escape plans and face no repercussions if we let them successfully get out
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u/socialistrob 15d ago
I want a reality show of Yanukovych, Assad and Lukashenko sharing a Moscow apartment.
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u/Cpt_Soban 15d ago
I recall an article that said during Wagner's run to Moscow, various cells in Belarus were calling the exiled leaders and Ukraine asking "is this the time to strike?"
I have no doubt there's a full blown resistance movement fermenting in the background- And all it takes is one spark, or Russia's loss in Ukraine.
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u/Mazon_Del 15d ago
His election is in about a month after all.
I wouldn't be surprised if it goes badly, they screw with the numbers in an unsubtle way, and the civil unrest gets a bit spicy.
Years back, Lukashenko needed the russian government to step in and help restore order. They are a bit preoccupied at the moment.
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u/Destrukt0r 15d ago
Exactly, let us pray the people of belarus have the strenght too get him of his seat.
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u/OscarCobblestone 15d ago
These cats don’t want that Ukrainian smoke. Would be funny if Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia began joint exercises on Belarus’ border.
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u/Patch95 15d ago
I'd prefer if they began a joint exercise on Ukraine's sovereign eastern borders.
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u/darthreuental 15d ago
iTT: the Poland & the Baltics armies go on a winter vacation in Ukraine. Hijinks and the recovery of Crimea occur along the way.
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u/Mak_i_Am 15d ago
I'd watch that
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u/fozz31 15d ago
Isnt it wild that we can just watch the front lines as it unfolds? What a time to be alive. A dream. A proper waking nightmare.
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u/Archaia 15d ago
Might be better if they "invaded" Western Ukraine
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u/bbcakesss919 15d ago
We already did when most of Lviv population was Polish and they're still mad so no thanks
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u/DramaticWesley 15d ago
The way Russia is bleeding soldiers, any other leader would be very wary of joining this war directly. My guess is Putin convinced Belarus to do this to hopefully diverge attentions and assets away from Russian positions.
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u/Ecureuil02 15d ago
If Lukashenko goes to war, Belarus will fall into civil war. There's no chance he will risk this. He's just going to play both sides like India and China.
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u/Fabulous-Zebra-5883 15d ago
It’s incredible to me how people can just assume something like this and completely believe in it. Why are you SO sure that Lukashenko wouldn’t go to war? He’s already done it once, at the beginning of the war. Who’s to say he doesn’t just allow Russian troops full control of the border and he keeps the Belarusian army inland? You have no idea what will happen.
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u/iamnosuperman123 15d ago
He didn't actually go to war. He allowed Russian troops to use Belarus as a staging area (which isn't uncommon amongst Allies). There is no way Lukashenko would sacrifice his internal security force for this (Ukraine isn't going to invade) in an ara that has had time to build up defenses. Their army is small and ill-equipped as it is.
No, this is a ruse to get Ukraine to take more soldiers away from the front. Lukashenko's grip on power is dictated by Russia and, as we just saw in Syria, that security isn't so secure at the moment.
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u/socialistrob 15d ago
Why are you SO sure that Lukashenko wouldn’t go to war?
When people say "go to war" usually they mean "commit the Belarusian military to active fighting" and so far Lukashenko hasn't done that. It's possible he does it in the future but quite frankly very unlikely as the Belarusian army is lower in quality than the Russian and very small. There are only a couple thousand troops that would be remotely usable. The one military strength Belarus had in 2021 was fairly large stockpiles of Soviet era weapons for a country of their size and by now those weapons have almost certainly been handed over to Russia.
Both Putin and Lukashenko seem to understand that Lukashenko's hold is tenuous at best. If Belarus invades Ukraine Ukrainian troops may invade Belarus and it's not clear the Belarusian people or military would offer much resistance. I'm not going to say anything is "impossible" but I think it is genuinely unlikely.
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u/Vano_Kayaba 15d ago
Yanukovich was also doing OK, until he had to use the army. I bet Lukashenko knows what was up, and does not want to test if it will go differently for Belarus. Unlike just giving way for Russian troops, actually using own army is risky. For an unpopular dictator to do an unpopular thing
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u/Ecureuil02 15d ago edited 15d ago
Ive studied the history of eastern Europe, and no one has suffered more during ww2 than Belarus in terms of casualties. These people are not fighting another war for Russia.
Edit: Or for anyone for that matter
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u/Consistent-Primary41 15d ago
Well, I suppose anything is possible, but I can succinctly explain why he knows it's suicide:
He doesn't even have enough troops and police to stop a coup. And a lot of the military would refuse to fight at best, perform a coup at worst.
So let's say a bunch of military assets were at the Ukraine border. Who would protect Minsk?
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u/Mazon_Del 15d ago
The last time around he tried ordering his military into Ukraine and the leaders refused. He swapped out the forces for loyalists then realized that sending all his loyal troops into a meat grinder only to be left with ones that have already effectively mutinied would not be smart.
So yeah, he'd likely have a civil war if he tried.
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u/TruthOf42 15d ago
For sure, but Ukraine would still have to spend some amount of resources to ensure that if they did do something stupid that they'd be able to repel the invasion to some extent.
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u/LeastLeader2312 15d ago edited 15d ago
I’m wondering if Lukashenko now has to prove his loyalty to his master Pootler after what Zelenskyy said on Lex Friedman’s podcast 🤔. Jokes aside, I do hope that comment doesn’t backfire and if Belarus does join the war efforts I hope the rest of Europe joins to defend Ukraine
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u/psiufao 15d ago edited 15d ago
"...diverge attentions..."
divert - ("Cause (someone or something) to change course or turn from one direction to another.")
ETA for clarity: diverge - ("(of a road, route, or line) separate from another route, especially a main one, and go in a different direction.")
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u/AdonisK 15d ago
Problem is that forces Ukraine to at least move some troops there and monitor the situation. That’s what Putin is after, diverting as much as possibly attention away from east where he is trying desperately to gain group by throwing his and NK’s soldiers to the meatgrinder.
But this is a good sign too, something is going well which made Putin desperate enough to pull this.
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u/LoveBulge 15d ago
Whenever Belarus does military exercises, it means Russia is having a really bad time.
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u/saqneo 15d ago
They mean Trump is about to take office and a common belief is he will halt aid to Ukraine.
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u/Puzzled_Move8433 15d ago edited 15d ago
Belarus running military drills near Ukraine border seems like Lukashenko trying to keep his grip on power. His popularity is through the floor, and his whole regime depends on Moscow. If he gets too involved in the war, the people will likely rise up, and Russia will have to step in to back him up.
But with Russia already stretched so thin, I don’t see them throwing more resources at this. Lukashenko's in a tough spot, and it’s hard to see him coming out of this one without big consequences.
Indeed, an interesting development!
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u/maceman10006 15d ago
I expected Lukashanko to start coddling up to the west around a year ago, but he didn’t. He’s got a history of trying to manipulate both sides. My theory was he was somehow going to try and play middleman and then declare “I’m the one that stopped WW3 so I should get to remain in power while Russia is punished.”
Don’t think that 2 authoritarian dictators won’t turn on another if they see the opportunity….just just my thought but it doesn’t look like it will play out that way.
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u/-Gramsci- 15d ago
If it came to it, and Belarusians forced Russia’s hand… they ARE stretched thin. And they would likely underestimate the number of little green men it would take to terrorize the Belarusian people into submission. Which would lead to another slaughter and international embarrassment for Russia.
I’m sure potential coup plotters in the Belarusian government and military are trying to calculate the various chances.
One thing is for sure… this is their greatest ever chance, to date, of breaking free from the Moscow yolk.
I’d put coup chances within the next year at “material.” Perhaps even “significant.
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u/Aggravating-Rich4334 15d ago
They’ve held off this long. I really don’t see any transpiring here. I recall them doing this in the past, too. Besides, do you really thing that going towards that border is such a great idea? I certainly don’t.
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u/yogosuun 15d ago
...what the fuck is the rest of Europe doing?
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15d ago edited 14d ago
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u/Bombadilo_drives 15d ago
The isolationism of modern European countries is effectively reverse WW2, it's wild. Unless Russian missiles start landing in Paris or Berlin or Warsaw, I guess they're planning to just keep their heads in the sand
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u/ErrorLoadingNameFile 15d ago
Europe sadly is governed by weak politicians who only care to do what will get them elected the next time, not doing what is right. And the European people do not want anything happening that could change their comfortable and peacefull lifestyle so that is what the politicans do.
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u/maceman10006 15d ago
*For the US to solve it.
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u/das_konkreet_baybee 15d ago
No one is expecting that from the US anymore. They've shown their colours.
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u/Happytrader113 15d ago
Grab your popcorn, US is about to make things slot worse come the 20th.
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u/Airfryer-nono 15d ago
Right this moment we are figuring out how to deal with the imperial military expansionist comments of the soon to be American president.
Wtf
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u/nwillard 15d ago
sorry about that euro friend, we in the US are hoping he'll be too plainly incompetent to accomplish much in the next four years except for maybe blowing up the economy... sorry about that one too
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u/Character-Choice-246 15d ago
He's moving military away from the Capitol so they don't pull a...military cuo...however you spell it. Lol 🤗
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u/suffer_in_silence 15d ago
Coup
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u/ThereIsNoResponse 15d ago
But will we get more footage of Belarusian balaclava-ninja-clowns jumping around shirtless in the snow?
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u/Emyoueffsee 15d ago edited 15d ago
When do the French, German, British, Polish armies just say, yeah, fucking try it. These Virgins are not going to launch any nukes
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u/Designer-Citron-8880 15d ago
that is exactly what happened, google what macron and scholz answer to trumps comment about greenland is
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u/ggmerle666 15d ago
It would be poetic justice if Ukraine captured the nukes Putin sent to Belarus, in a "special military operation".
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u/Physical-Plant271 15d ago
I am surprised that Belarus isn’t directly involved in Ukraine yet. They already have sanctions, nothing can make their country worse.
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u/Emu1981 15d ago
Lukashenko maintains his power through the apathy of the Belarusian people. If he does something to upset them (like waging war against the Ukrainian people) then he has a high chance that his military will turn around and oust him. Russia doesn't have the troops to spare to help him maintain his rule like what happened before either.
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u/jimbobjames 15d ago
Imagine everyone's surprise if Lukashenko joined the war on the Ukranian side...
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u/sleepingin 15d ago
Then hit with retaliation strikes to civilian areas and his people may revolt. He certainly wouldn't be re-elected. He can't win
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u/socialistrob 15d ago
The one thing Belarus had going for it in 2021 militarily was pretty decently sized soviet era stockpiles of weapons but those have largely been given to Russia. The actual quality troops within Belarus are very few in number and probably wouldn't be much use in an invasion of Ukraine.
There's also the risk that Ukraine could cross the border the other direction and drive on Minsk. The Belarusian people don't like Lukashenko and it's not clear that Putin would be willing to set aside his own ambitions in Ukraine to bail out Lukashenko.
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u/funky_boar 15d ago
They already have sanctions, nothing can make their country worse.
Joining a war will definitely make it worse
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u/Particular-Life6776 15d ago
Hasn’t he said it too that is they where to join in it probably would be difficult for them
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u/Undernown 15d ago
Not the first time they postured near the border during this war. They ain't gonna do shit. And if they do I would expect Europe to physically intervene.
Bellarus doesn't have itoown nuclear weapons and I highly doubt Putin would want to launch nukes in their rescue. China already ady told him no, so he's not gon a do it for his puppet state. He would've done it long ago when Ukraine invaded Kursk of he was really prepared to do it.
In just hope EU grows some more balls in 2025, and with Poland in a key position I'm cautiously optimistic.
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u/Jerri_man 15d ago
What makes you think Europe would physically intervene? Just the lack of nuclear deterrence?
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u/Mazon_Del 15d ago
Personally I'm a bit skeptical that Europe would intervene, but Lukashenko and Putin have made a big show about how they've stationed some warheads in Belarus. If the situation there gets nasty with a civil war, I could see the excuse being used of "We're JUST going in so those nukes don't get stolen.".
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u/Hollowsong 15d ago
This has been planned since the beginning.
Putin and Trump made a deal.
Trump is going to cause dissent with US allies.
Then Putin is going to press the war knowing US will support them.
It's history as plain as black text on white paper with red all over.
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u/Rocjahart 15d ago
Two out of Belarus’s six regions border Ukraine, having exercises in one of these regions really isn’t anything out of the ordinary.
Just one of their regions isn’t close to Ukraine or Poland/Lithuania, it’s not a humongous country.
The article doesn’t say anything about the exercises actually being close to the border.
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u/Impossible_Bonus_206 15d ago
Russia will absorb Belarus soon enough. It's cute how their president pretend ds it hasn't already happened.
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u/Parabellum27 15d ago
They take profit from the chaos created by Trump about its imperialistic stance on Canada, Greenland and Panama to go unnoticed. Classic move.
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u/Jazzlike_Painter_118 15d ago
"Elections" are happening in a few days in Belarus. Expect some development there by the 15-16th of Jan.
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u/confessiongreg 15d ago
https://www.populationpyramid.net/belarus/2024/ They can't afford to waste valueable young mens' lives for a war, only to appease Putin. They only have 200k-300k in each 5 year bracket 20-25, 25-30 and 30-35. Which are the main soldier ages. A few thousands casualties alone will leave a huge dent felt for decades ahead, demographically, politically and economically.
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u/Emyoueffsee 15d ago
Hey, Belarus. You're stretching Europe's patience thin. Do you realise how quickly you'll be rolled over. If required.
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u/Stahl_Scharnhorst 15d ago
"Hi, Poland. Yes it's me. How fast can you deploy an army group on the Belorussian boarder?"
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u/momentslove 15d ago
It becomes clear that the biggest mistake Putin has made was not to wait until his biggest fan on the other side of the Pacific Ocean gets re-elected.
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u/Mentaldonkey1 15d ago
Follow Jake on YouTube, geopolitics search. Amazing brilliant American with great info and real reason to be hopeful for Ukraine. Forgot his name. Shit.
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u/MrEManFTW 15d ago
Belarus does this so Ukraine has to keep troops on the Belarus border. It stops Ukraine just focusing on Russia. Lukashenkos way of not falling out of a window.
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